Predicting the 2015 Oscars, Part 2

Now that we have gotten the lesser known but equally important Oscar categories out of the way, I think it is time to look at the other categories.  These categories are the ones everyone will be talking about by Monday morning.


Best Costume Design:

Not going to win: The Danish Girl
Might contend: Mad Max: Fury Road and The Revenant
Nominees to look for :
Sandy Powell, Carol
Sandy Powell, Cinderella

I believe Sandy Powell will win Best Costume Design, and it will be for Ms. Powell's impressive designs for Carol.  I honestly cannot see this award going to another costume designer for this year, as Ms. Powell was excellent last year.

Best Sound Mixing:

Not going to win: The Martian
Might contend: Mad Max: Fury Road, The Revenant, Star Wars: The Force Awakens
Nominee certain to win:
Gary Rydstrom, et al., Bridge Of Spies

At this point in the film industry, Gary Rydstrom may just be the most important and innovative sound engineer today.  And clearly Mr. Rydstrom was innovative yet again for his designs used in Bridge Of Spies, particularly in the 5.1 mix I heard in the theater and on Blu-Ray.

Best Original Song:

Not going to win: Simple Song #3, from Youth
Nominees to look for:
The Weeknd, et al., Earned It, from Fifty Shades Of Grey
Anohni Hegarty, et al., Manta Ray, from Racing Extinction
Lady Gaga and Diane Warren, Til It Happens To You, from The Hunting Ground
Sam Smith, et al., The Writing's On The Wall, from Spectre

I happened to like Earned It and Manta Ray, even though their respective movies left much to be desired.  Then again, The Weeknd is quite the good singer, and Anohni is someone that will likely get more notice stateside.  I happened to like Spectre, and of course Sam Smith is one of the best singers out there today.
None the less, Till It Happens To You happens to be one of Lady Gaga's most impressive songs; to say nothing of it being one of Diane Warren's best too.  I expect Gaga's performance to be one of the highlights of the show, as it was last year and most recently at the Grammys.  Indeed, Vice President Joe Biden will be introducing her performance in advocacy of the rights of victims of sexual assault.  And having seen The Hunting Ground, I am convinced this is the right way to honor the movie with a great song.

Best Documentary Feature:

Not going to win: Amy, Cartel Land, What Happened, Miss Simone?, and Winter On Fire: Ukraine's Fight For Freedom
Nominee certain to win:
Joshua Oppeneimer, et al., The Look Of Silence

Joshua Oppenheimer has brought forth a most amazing documentary that is a perfect companion piece to his 2012 film The Act Of Killing. I was most particularly impressed with the involvement and reporting taken place to expose the darker secrets of the 1965 purge of communists in Indonesia.  This documentary will certainly win.

Best Foreign language Film

Not going to win: Embrace Of The Serpent, Theeb, and A War
Nominees to watch:
Danize Gamze Erguven, Mustang
Laszlo Nemes, Son Of Saul

Son Of Saul will win best Foreign Language film this year.  It is not even close.  A rather innovative debut for Laszlo Nemes which I think will be looked at as one of the defining movies of 2015, and perhaps a defining anti-war movie.

Best Animated Film:

Not going to win: Boy & The World and Shaun The Sheep Movie
Nominees to watch:
Charlie Kaufman, et al., Anomolisa
Pete Docter, et al., Inside Out
Hiromasa Yonebayashi, et al., When Marnie Was There

I still have yet to see Anomolisa, and hope t see it fairly soon.  None the less, I thought Inside Out was one of the best films of 2015, and the best Disney and Pixar created in quite some time.  Inside Out will in all likelihood be the recipient of a much deserved Oscar.  By the way, if you have children; have them see Inside Out with you.  It will be beneficial for the young and old.

Best Original Screenplay:

Not going to win: Bridge Of Spies
Might pull off an upset: Straight Outta Compton
Nominees to watch:
Alex Garland, Ex Machina
Pete Docter, et al., Inside Out
Tom McCarthy, et al., Spotlight

I was completely blown away by Tom McCarthy's writing in Spotlight.  However, what Pete Docter accomplished with his team in creating Inside Out is astonishing.  It resonates to anyone that has seen this movie, and I hope that Inside Out can be a positive influence on anybody that is in a depressive state.  Again, I was completely impressed with the very intelligent writing.

Best original Score:

Not going to win: Thomas Newman, Bridge Of Spies
Contenders for the Oscar:
Carter Burwell, Carol
Ennio Morricone, The Hateful Eight
Johann Johannson, Sicario
John Williams, Star Wars: The Force Awakens

I have not yet seen The Hateful Eight, yet i did get to hear excerpts from Ennio Morricone's score.  It is quite good, and might win the Oscar.  I think that my sentimental pick would be John Williams, perhaps the most important composer of his field; apart from Mr. Morricone and Carter Burwell.  None the less, the score to any Star Wars movie is of such importance, that without it the movies fall apart.  So I am hoping John Williams will win the Oscar; yet I will not be upset if it goes to an equally deserving composer.

Best Cinematography:

Roger Deakins, Sicario
Edward Lachman, Carol
Emmanuel Lubezki, The Revenant
Robert Richardson, The Hateful Eight
John Seale, Mad Max: Fury Road

John Seale quite honestly should win Best Cinematography, in recognition of a most impressive and groundbreaking action-adventure film.  None the less, at some point Roger Deakins needs to get his much deserved Oscar.  I do wonder if Sicario will be the movie to end the streak.  It was shot very well too.

Best Adapted Screenplay:

Not going to win: Drew Goddard, The Martian: from the Andy Weir novel.

Contenders for the Oscar:
Adam McKay et al., The Big Short: from the Michael Lewis book.
Nick Hornby, Brooklyn: from the Colm Toibin novel
Carol: adapted from the Patricia Highsmith novel,, initially named The Price Of Salt
Emma Donoghue, Room: adapted from her novel.

All four contenders are worthy of an Oscar.  I would like to see Emma Donoghue win this important award, particularly in adapting her own novel to an excellent movie.  Truthfuly though, I would hope that Adam McKay and his team win the award for their highly intelligent and multi-layered script of The Big Short.

Best Supporting Actor:

Not going to win: Mark Rylance, Bridge Of Spies

Contenders for the Oscar:
Christian Bale, The Big Short
Tom Hardy, The Revenant
Mark Ruffalo, Spotlight
Sylvester Stallone, Creed

I personally would like to see Tom Hardy win Best Supporting Actor.  Mr. Hardy's presence in The Revenant was just completely astounding, and he held his own.  I also really liked Mark Ruffalo, whom I consider one of the better actors that can be involved with socially conscious films.

Yet, I think Sylvester Stallone will take home the Oscar this year.  Creed was one of the more pleasant surprises in 2015: a worthy follow up and an important addendum to the Rocky movies.  And Sylvester Stallone did a tremendous role which was surprisingly poignant once more.  Indeed in light of Tony Burton (Duke in the Rocky movies) having passed away just recently, I am convinced that Mr. Stallone is going to receive his long deserved Oscar.

Best Supporting Actress:

Not going to win:  Alicia Vikander, The Danish Girl; and Kate Winslet, Steve Jobs

Contenders for the Oscar:
Jennifer Jason Leigh, The Hateful Eight
Rooney Mara, Carol
Rachel McAdams, Spotlight

Again, I have not seen The Hateful Eight yet; but I do like Jennifer Jason Leigh and would be pleased with her winning.  Having mentioned that, I was particularly impressed with Rooney Mara in her role in Carol.  In my opinion, this is a stunning role that I would hope gets Ms. Mara an Oscar.

Best Actor:

Not going to win: Bryan Cranston, Trumbo; Matt Damon, The Martian; Michael Fassbender, Steve Jobs; and Eddie Redmayne, The Danish Girl.

Going to win:
Leonardo DiCaprio, The Revenant

This is the one virtual lock for the Oscar season this year.  Mr. DiCaprio is long deserving of an Oscar, and honestly the competition this year is not as impressive.  Yet, Leonardo DiCaprio should prepare for his well deserved gold statue.

Best Actress:

Not going to win:  Jennifer Lawrence, Joy

Contenders for the Oscar:
Cate Blanchett, Carol
Brie Larson, Room
Charlotte Rampling, 45 Years
Soairse Ronan, Brooklyn

I have yet to see 45 years, though I do like Charlotte Rampling.  Having mentioned that, in a rather tight and impressive category, I think Brie Larson should win Best Actress this year.  It was quite revealing and impressive.

Best Director:

Lenny Abrahamson, Room
Alejandro Gonzalez Innaritu, The Revenant
Tom McCarthy, Spotlight
Adam McKay, The Big Short
George Miller, Mad Max: Fury Road

It would be a ballsy and brave move for George Miller to win the Oscar.  I would hope Tom McCarthy gets this Oscar and some much deserved acclaim.  Yet, I will not be surprised to see Alejandro Gonzalez Innaritu win a second consecutive Best Director Oscar.  A.G.I. is one of the most impressive and unique filmmakers of his or any era.  The Revenant certainly proves this ideal.

Best Picture:

Not going to win:  Steven Spielberg, et al., Bridge Of Spies, and Simon Kinberg and Sir Ridley Scott, et al., The Martian

Could pull off an upset:
Brooklyn
Room
Spotlight

Contending to win it all:

Brad Pitt, et al., The Big Short
George Miller, et al., Mad Max: Fury Road
Arnon Milchan and Alejandro Gonzalez Innaritu, et al., The Revenant

Once again, the ballsiest and most brave choice would be Mad Max: Fury Road.  My personal choice would be Spotlight.  None the less, the likely and more interesting Best Picture may be The Revenant.  Perhaps AMPAS is awarding Alejandro Gonzalez Innaritu The Revenant and from last year Birdman due to the oversight of not honoring 21 Grams and Babel years ago; both of those movies having become modern classics.  Having mentioned that, Birdman and The Revenant are likely going to be modern new classics for many years to come.

I note this is last minute.  None the less, this is before the show begins.  So, now on with the show!  My responses to come in a timely manner.

Happy viewing,

Robert

Handicapping the Oscars, Year 2

On February 28, 2016, The Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences will present the 88th annual Academy Awards; better known as the Oscars.  The past year in movies, 2015, was a watershed year in that matters pertaining to how films are distributed and what types of films should get nominations will the focal point for a discussion on the future of the industry.  In all fairness, I am not too certain what will be the future of Hollywood; though I suspect movies will always be around because it is the art form that has shaped our society for some 100 years now.

It is with this idea that I bring forth for the second year my thoughts on the nominations for each Oscar category, and who I think is most deserving of a statue.  Having seen many of the nominated movies, I can certainly attest to these films deserving of a nomination or perhaps even a win in their respective categories. Think of this as a continuation of what Siskel and Ebert had done every year with their hour-long special If We Picked The Winners.  And yes, every category will be looked into.

Best Visual Effects:
Ex Machina
Mad Max: Fury Road
The Martian
The Revenant
Star Wars: The Force Awakens

I am hoping the visual effects team from Star Wars: The Force Awakens gets the award. Yet I was quite impressed with the practical effects used in Mad Max: Fury Road.

Best Film Editing:
The Big Short
Mad Max: Fury Road
The Revenant
Spotlight
Star Wars: The Force Awakens

In the same result as we see in Visual Effects, I would like to see either Star Wars: The Force Awakens or Mad Max: Fury Road take the prize.  A good action adventure film needs to have a competent and dedicated editor or editors to make the perfect cut for a movie.  These two films are clear examples of how editing is needed to make an audience enthralled with what they are seeing.

Best Make-Up and Hairstyle:
The 100-Year-Old Man Who Climbed Out The Window And Disappeared.
Mad Max: Fury Road
The Revenant

I am more inclined to see The Revenant win this award.  The most impressive Make-Up jobs tend to be the ones that seem most realistic.  This is not to take away Mad Max: Fury Road in its approach to Make-Up and Hairstyle; yet The Revenant was more interesting.

Best Production Design:
Bridge Of Spies
The Danish Girl
Mad Max: Fury Road
The Martian
The Revenant

I would be pleased for either Mad Max: Fury Road or The Revenant winning this all important category.  Though I would prefer The Revenant due once again to its realistic approach to designs.

Best Sound Editing:
Mad Max: Fury Road
The Martian
The Revenant
Sicario
Star Wars: The Force Awakens

Sound Editing is quite an important award in the process of cutting and splicing soundscapes and audio to enhance a movie.  How I see it, the Revenant did best in the approach to Sound Editing.  I was quite impressed with the results.

Best Animated Short Film:
Bear Story
Prologue
Sanjay's Super Team
We Can't Live Without Cosmos
World Of Tomorrow

I was very impressed with World Of Tomorrow.  Indeed, it is quite possibly one of the better experimental animated films to come out in recent years.  It is a near certainty that World Of Tomorrow will win Best Animated Short.

Best Live Action Short:
Ave Maria
Day One
Everything Will Be Okay
Shok
Stutterer

Shok seems to be the most interesting Short Subject to win this award.  It is a very good period piece regarding the war in Kosovo in the 1990s.

Best Documentary Short Subject:
Body Team 12
Chau, Behind The Lines
Claude Lanzmann, Spectres Of The Shoah
A Girl In The River: The Price Of Forgiveness
Last Day Of Freedom

I am hoping that Claude Lanzmann: Spectres Of The Shoah wins this category.  Shoah, though extremely long even for a documentary, is one of the better movies to have been released in some 40 years.  This seems to be the most proper way of rectifying the oversight.

Now that is part one of my look at the Oscar nominees this year.  The remaining categories are a bit more thorough to consider and thus, since this took me a while to finish, I have decided to present a part two which will be posted shortly.

More to come; stay tuned,

Robert

Bots 2.0: The Trend Reversal

Nine years ago, in 2007, I became aware of a internet trend that lasted quite a while.  It was in February of that year when I went on to Alex Jones' primary website Infowars.  For quite some time, even to a certain extant now; I would frequent the site and become immersed in getting the truth out regarding 911, the Middle East, and honestly the machinations of what Mr. Jones names the globalists.  On that specific day, Dr. Ron Paul, a Texas Republican member of the US House of Representatives on and off from March 1976 through late 2011, had come on the program to discuss future plans.  Those plans included running for President of the United States in 2008; this time solely as a Republican, as opposed to running in 1988 on the Libertarian line.

This prompted Alex Jones to declare that Dr. Ron Paul, admittedly a rare political figure well known as an expert on foreign policy, finance and medicine; was the only choice for President that would fix everything.  That was not exactly what he said, but it was effectively what was said.  Pretty soon, virtually every important alternative internet website and political weblog was clamoring and begging people to vote for Dr. Paul.  I never took the bait.  How I saw it; if a Presidential candidate is going to offer you every wish your heart desires, nothing will ever be delivered.  If a candidate does not promise anything, yet offers realistic solutions; that candidate is who you need to vote for.  It also seemed patently absurd that the voting public would replace a Cheney-Bush Republican Presidency with a Paul Presidency from the same political party.  The only reason Dr Paul was anti-war, I deduced, was due to the knowledge of America's finances being in a collapsing stage.  Dr. Paul not once has ever, to my knowledge, opposed many of these Middle East conflagrations on a moral merit solely. As well, Dr. Paul's libertarian viewpoint on economic policy is equivalent to an old polemic on political ideologies:

A liberal will see a homeless person and provide him money, food, a coat, and/or a gift to alleviate his plight.

A conservative will see a homeless person and give him a book and/or pamphlet of religious and conservative writings.  That is if the conservative does anything about the plight. of the homeless person.

A libertarian will see a homeless person and will ask that a wall be built in front of and in back of the homeless population so that he does not have to see them when he next walks down the street.  In short, out of sight out of mind.

Not surprisingly, it turns out that nearly the bulk of the internet media were libertarian minded.  And lo and behold, they found Dr. Ron Paul as their champion.  The internet was awash with incessant pandering to the Paul family and their advancement in our political world.  Dr. Paul and Sen. Rand Paul have taken this hero worship and ran with it unabashedly.  However, their policies can be debunked and ridiculed if one takes the time to actually do it.  In 2007, I believe Dr. Paul's campaign cratered when he appeared on Meet The Press with Tim Russert and Mr Russert was quite proficient in poking holes at Dr. Paul's policies.  In 2012, Dr. Paul's campaign began to fail yet again when this time prominent Democrats like Mayor Ed Koch forcefully examined the perceived Anti-Semitism inherent in the Paul family; which then got other Democrats to publicly give Dr. Paul the same scrutiny as any other Republican.

However, it was in the 2012 Presidential Campaign that the internet media lost any and all sense of objectivity in effectively forcing Dr. Ron Paul into the Republican nomination at any price.  It started with the contested results at the Iowa Caucus, which I will admit had been won by Sen. Rick Santorum in a rather dubious manner.  Any momentum the Paul campaign had was neutered the next week in New Hampshire.  Dr. Paul came in third at best, and Mitt Romney began his ascension to winning the GOP Nomination in states won, delegates and the national popular vote.  In a related matter, the Paul family could deal with Mr. Romney as the Republican nominee as opposed to all the others; even Sen. Rand Paul endorsed Mitt Romney.  But of course, the internet media, so much in the tank for Dr Paul for over 5 years by that point, would have none of it.  When the primaries were completed and before the RNC convention, numerous YouTube figures led by Matt Larson and similar bloggers led campaigns to have Dr. Paul become the nominee by packing the delegates with Paul supporters.  The theory of this being that the delegates to each state would be those that voted and campaigned for Dr. Paul; and thus, in their own accord, would unilaterally place Dr. Paul as the candidate and not the rightful winner of the primary in former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney.  This was a complete fantasy, one in which I and many other political science people knew would never work.  It would have been a brokered convention by any other name; and voters would defect from the GOP in droves.

But even then they were still not done.  Days after the convention, Michael Rivero of What Really Happened led a call for Dr. Ron Paul to declare an Independent Presidential run and announce it on his Labor Day week appearance on the Tonight Show with Jay Leno.  I remember the calls and theories presented by these internet media types like Mr. Rivero throughout 2012; and was both amused and concerned over the more fantastical theories and hopes that had accumulated during the course of the year.  Well, by that point I had enough of at least Mike Rivero's tomfoolery.  Just before Dr. Paul's appearance on Leno, I wrote Mr. Rivero an e-mail telling him to effectively grow up and accept the loss.  I clearly asked him a question which no answer was needed:  did Rivero and co. want to have the Paul family in a rather volatile and bitter Holiday season if Dr. Ron Paul ran as an Independent while Sen. Rand Paul already endorsed Mitt Romney?  I would like to think that email helped in stopping Mr. Rivero's absurd thinking on these matters.  Neither WRH or other websites continued to drink the spiked punch afterwards, barring Ryan Dawson who has become rather embittered over the years.

Four years alter, and I am seeing this happen again.  Yet surprisingly this time, it is not the Republicans that are in this pickle.  It sadly is the Democrats.  For the past 16 years, if not more than that, the heir to the throne of the Democratic party and by extension the heir to leadership has been Sec. Of State Hillary Clinton.  I am one that believes Hillary Clinton should have run for President in 2000 rather than get elected to the US Senate: that way, everything that has happened in these past 16 years would not have happened.  After the 2012 election, which involved both Pres Obama and Mitt Romney resorting to e-vote fraud and resulted in a 50%-48% Obama victory; the immediate reaction should have been to allow Sec. of State Clinton to obtain the Presidency by Election Day 2016.  And for a while there in late 2012 and early 2013, that narrative was being utilized.  In fact, one YouTube poster projected that there would be two-term Democratic Presidents through at least 2048.  It would start with Sen. and Sec. Of state Hillary Clinton, then Sen. Cory Booker, then Chelsea Clinton and finally Malaia Obama.  That seems about right, and I would be accepting of this lineage.

However, the current President, Barack Obama, is not pleased.  For one, it it meant that two Clintons and Sen. Booker would get elected before the next Obama was elected.  Secondly, Hillary Clinton works in a different outlook than Democrats coming from Obama's coattails.  So what has followed, I think, has been for three years now a purging from within the Democratic Party of continuity. Starting with the Boston Bombing inside job, the Democrats have been loosing the social political and economic narrative; resulting in net losses for Democrats in elections.  This accumulated in 2014 when the Senate went to a 54-46 Senate Majority.  By the way, the Senate elections in 2016 are projecting a 52-48 Republican majority, a far cry from last year when it was assumed the Democrats could easily regain the Senate and perhaps even reach 60 Democratic Senators.

Knowing this, the Democratic Party would gain momentum and relevance with a Clinton Presidency.  And yet, it has not been the typical GOP gawkers that have been problem for the Clinton campaign, as it would be expected.  No, this time it is an insurrection of Democrats not ever having engaged in realpolitik.  For instance, there is Sen. Bernie Sanders running for the nomination and putting forth votes that are a mirage of ideas at best.  There is former Sen. Jim Webb running an Independent bid which, while not going that far, will put a dent in Election Day votes.  There is Vice President Joe Biden, who based on what Clinton insider Larry Nichols  has recently been saying, is running a shadow campaign for the Presidency just on the off chance that an indictment is handed out to Hillary Clinton over the fake e-mail scandals.  There is Sen. Elizabeth Warren, who has not endorsed anyone yet precisely because Sen. Warren believes she is best qualified to be President.  There is Gov. Jerry Brown from California whom has never been a Clinton ally.  And yes, there is Pres. Obama, who has not endorsed anyone yet.

The immediate focus, and by all means the Paul family for the Democrats this year, is Sen. Bernie Sanders.  As I type this on the day of the New Hampshire primary, Sen. Sanders lost Iowa by only a tenth of a percent and is looking to win New Hampshire.  Now, as I said before, President Bill Clinton lost Iowa and New Hampshire but went on to winning the Presidency in 1992; in 2016 I would suspect Hillary Cinton to easily win New York, California, South Carolina, Texas, North Carolina and many other states; enough to effectively seal the deal by early May when New York has its primaries.  Yet, I am not entirely seeing it this year.  Instead, I am seeing a second attempt at dismantling the rightful heir to the throne in Sec. of State Clinton by fellow Democrats.  It is known that the Republican Party could theoretically be content with a Clinton Presidency, as they were under Bill Clinton's time in office.  We all know hat a Sanders Presidency will involve complete political gridlock.  If you think nothing is being done now, wait until a four year long standstill reminiscent of The Zax.

Now that I finish this, I am noticing that Donald Trump and Sen. Bernie Sanders have won their respective primaries in New Hampshire.  Both of them have them won by landslides, which is more than 10% of the difference between first and second.  While I still think these outcomes will be corrected next week, I am not pleased with these results.  As well, when the tide does turn, we will be seeing Sanders supporters getting even more obtuse and wanting their candidate at all costs.  I am telling you all: Sen. Bernie Sanders being the nominee will mean Michael Bloomberg runs as an independent. And when that happens, you will have Trump, Gov. John Kasich, Sen. Ted Cruz, Marco Rubio or even (gasp!) Jeb Bush as our President come election day.  We will be in ruins before this year is out.

We simply cannot afford another 9 11 or worse to occur.  We also cannot be the one developed nation to treat their women as fourth class citizens.  This needs to change soon.

I will have more to say in the days to come,

Robert