Scottish Identity and the Implications of Governance in the United Kingdom

It has taken me a weekend to fully digest the new outlook in the political scene in the United Kingdom.  I can remember in 1993 when our neighbors to the north, Canada, went through a significant federal election which saw the near dismantling of the Conservative Party under the premierships of Brian Mulroney and Kim Campbell; subsequently, the Liberal Party under the tutelage of Jean Chretien became the governing leaders in Canada.  Yet, for about 4 years until 1997, the opposition party was not one based on ideology, but regional autonomy.  That would be Bloc Quebecois; a burgeoning party that won 78 seats in the House of Commons in 1993 and nearly were successful in breaking away from English-speaking Canada to form a separate Quebec nation. 

Some 10 years ago, the Liberal Party premiership of Paul Martin collapsed under its own weight; bringing forth the current Conservative government led by Stephen Harper.  Adding insult to injury, the Liberal Party and Bloc Quebecois lost in the 2011 federal election to such an extant that neither party is amongst the official opposition.  That now belongs to the New Democratic Party (NDP), and indeed today Bloc Quebecois only has two MPs and not one member in the Canadian Senate. 

I mention this because the 2015 UK General Elections, which until last week was expected to result in a Labor government and an ousting of Conservatives not seen since 1997, turned out far differently than expected.  For one thing, voter fraud was widespread, resulting in Conservative and Independent gains in constituencies that tended to be more leftward.  MP George Galloway of the Peace Party was for the second time in 28 years defeated in an election; interestingly MP Galloway lost to a Labor MP that is more in tune with the Tony Blair New Labor movement than anything.  I expect there to be a recount, and maybe even a by-election in which MP Galloway will once again reclaim his seat, I hope. 

This year saw the emergence of the United Kingdom Independence Party (UKIP) at least at a level in which voters nationwide elected to choose rightist nationalist populism over any other political ideal.  It resulted in only 1 MP from UKIP elected,  Douglas Carswell.  Not even UKIP's leader Nigel Farage was elected.  However, UKIP received 13% of the overall vote, some 4 million votes.  By comparison, the Liberal Democrats under Nick Clegg went from having nearly 60 MPs to now only having 8, including Mr. Clegg.  Thus, the Lib Dems no longer are the leading third party in the UK.

That distinction now belongs to two different organizations.  UKIP is the choice based on total votes.  However, based on MPs elected, it is the Scottish National Party.  Since the Scottish Independence referendum vote of 2014 which resulted in Scotland staying in the United Kingdom, membership in the SNP has reached well over 100,000.  In addition, the SNP is completely opposed to austerity and is committed to obtaining full autonomy and economic independence from both the UK and the European Union in full.  This has attracted the renewal for Scottish Identity and autonomy.  Out of 59 Scottish constituencies contested last week, the SNP won 56 out of 59.  Interestingly, this does not include MSP Nicola Sturgeon, who chose not to run for the House of Commons.  This does however include MP Mhairi Black, who at age 20 is the youngest MP to be elected since 1667; also having defeated Shadow Foreign Secretary Douglas Alexander. 

As I mentioned before, the United Kingdom has a first-past-the-post system for elections.  There are no primaries where voters choose their own candidates, and if in theory 10 people are running for an election; one could win with, say, 17% of the vote.  That potential MP could be Conservative and the rest would be more left leaning.  Honestly, it does not favor a more binary and ideological structure. 

I suppose what many of us observers wanted was for UKIP to gain over 60-80 odd seats against Conservatives.  Were that to happen, Labor would have been given the plurality and likely would have formed a coalition government with the Lib Dems and the SNP.  However, that was not to be.  Britain is now stuck at the moment with a rejuvenated David Cameron premiership which does not need to form any coalition. And this does not bode well for the UK and the world at large.  In short, the arrival of the SNP as the third party in the UK may very well one day produce a process for referendum of independence similar to Bloc Quebecois 20 years ago which may trigger an unprecedented political crisis. 

There are of course numerous ways this could happen.  Yet I will leave you with one idea.  One day, Prince William and Princess Catherine, Duchess of Cambridge, will become King and Queen.  Maybe not in our lifetimes, but it will happen.  When that happens, and if Scottish Independence is fomenting; what might the new leadership of the Royal Family House of Windsor do if they feel it is needed to keep Scotland in the United Kingdom?  Might there be a suspension of elected governance and a return to monarchic rule absolutely?  Could it be Scotland might face a reborn Longshanks? 

I realize the answers may seem odd.  After all, in my entire life Queen Elizabeth II and Prince Philip, Duke of Edinburgh have been on the throne for the last 63 years.  I believe only Queen Victoria had a longer reign.  But one day, that will change.  And with a world population willing to trade political self governance with a return to one person, one rule status; the answers may not be pleasing to all. 

Talk to you again about this and other issues soon (though not Jared Leto soon; honest!),

Robert